Scenario comparison
Synthetic: modeled for the demo, not response guidance
Every score here is modeled and illustrative, not response guidance. Change a team in either column and both are re-scored at once; nothing is saved.
How the two allocations compare
SyntheticA: A: Concentrate on HENDERSON. B: B: Split NORTE and HENDERSON. The total is the sum of four weighted factor contributions; read the breakdown, not just the total.
B is slightly ahead by 0.0042: stronger on equity and response time; A is stronger on unmet demand and protection.
- Column A totalBehind
- 0.5555 = 0.2585 Modeled residential protection + 0.0000 Community equity (worst-served) + 0.1041 Response time + 0.1929 Unmet demand
- Column B totalAhead
- 0.5597 = 0.2324 Modeled residential protection + 0.0704 Community equity (worst-served) + 0.1319 Response time + 0.1250 Unmet demand
Factor weights (fixed, sum to 1)
- Modeled residential protection
- 0.40
- Community equity (worst-served)
- 0.20
- Response time
- 0.15
- Unmet demand
- 0.25
Column A
All ground teams to the larger HENDERSON fire; Helicopter 41 held unassigned.
- Modeled total, column ASyntheticBehind
- 0.5555
- Sum of the four weighted contributions in the breakdown below.
Factor breakdown, column A
SyntheticModeled residential protection0.2585 of 0.40 (▲ 0.0261 ahead)
Vulnerability-weighted population of threatened communities, each counted by how fully its threatening incident's personnel demand is met (assigned capacity / demand, capped at 1; a community under several threats uses its least-met one), over the total weighted threatened population. Weight = population x (1 + vulnerability).
- Raw value
- 39,655 weighted residents protected
- Normalized
- 0.6463 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.40
- Contribution
- 0.40 x 0.6463 = 0.2585
- Sampleton: 12,400 x (1 + 0.35) = 16,740 weighted; Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 0 / demand 16, capped at 1 = 0; protected 0
- Mockridge: 3,100 x (1 + 0.6) = 4,960 weighted; Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 0 / demand 16, capped at 1 = 0; protected 0
- Modelburg: 18,900 x (1 + 0.45) = 27,405 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 1; protected 27,405
- Demoville: 2,200 x (1 + 0.75) = 3,850 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 1; protected 3,850
- Synthwood: 5,600 x (1 + 0.5) = 8,400 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 1; protected 8,400
- Protected 39,655 / 61,355 weighted residents
Community equity (worst-served)0.0000 of 0.20 (▽ 0.0704 behind)
How well the worst-served threatened community is doing: the minimum over threatened communities of how fully each one's threatening incident's personnel demand is met (assigned capacity / demand, capped at 1; a community under several threats uses its least-met one). Same per-community credit as protection, but a minimum instead of a weighted average, so one community left short holds the score down however well the others do.
- Raw value
- 0 worst-served community's met ratio
- Normalized
- 0.0000 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.20
- Contribution
- 0.20 x 0.0000 = 0.0000
- Sampleton: Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 0 / demand 16, capped at 1 = credit 0 (worst-served)
- Mockridge: Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 0 / demand 16, capped at 1 = credit 0 (worst-served)
- Modelburg: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 1
- Demoville: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 1
- Synthwood: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 54 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 1
- Worst-served: Sampleton, Mockridge at credit 0 (minimum over 5 threatened communities)
Response time0.1041 of 0.15 (▽ 0.0278 behind)
Mean modeled minutes for assigned teams to reach their incident: mobilization + haversine distance / effective speed. 30 min or less scores 1, 120 min or more scores 0, linear between.
- Raw value
- 57.6 minutes (mean)
- Normalized
- 0.6937 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.15
- Contribution
- 0.15 x 0.6937 = 0.1041
- Engine Strike Team 1 (engine) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 15 min + 27.1 km / 50 km/h = 47.5 min
- Engine Strike Team 2 (engine) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 15 min + 17.2 km / 50 km/h = 35.7 min
- Hand Crew 7 (hand-crew) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 20 min + 27.5 km / 40 km/h = 61.3 min
- Dozer Group 2 (dozer) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 45 min + 17 km / 25 km/h = 85.8 min
- Helicopter 41: unassigned, not counted
- Mean 57.6 min over 4 team(s); (120 - mean) / (120 - 30), clamped to 0..1
Unmet demand0.1929 of 0.25 (▲ 0.0679 ahead)
Modeled personnel demand per threatening incident (ceil(threatened population / 1000 x severity rate)) minus assigned capacity, floored at 0, summed. Normalized as 1 - unmet / total demand, so 1 means no unmet demand.
- Raw value
- 16 personnel unmet
- Normalized
- 0.7714 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.25
- Contribution
- 0.25 x 0.7714 = 0.1929
- Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California: demand ceil(15,500 / 1000 x 1 (low)) = 16; assigned 0; unmet 16
- Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: demand ceil(26,700 / 1000 x 2 (high)) = 54; assigned 54; unmet 0
- Unmet 16 of 70 personnel; 1 - 16 / 70
Column B
Split ground teams; helicopter to NORTE near Sampleton.
- Modeled total, column BSyntheticAhead
- 0.5597
- Sum of the four weighted contributions in the breakdown below.
Factor breakdown, column B
SyntheticModeled residential protection0.2324 of 0.40 (▽ 0.0261 behind)
Vulnerability-weighted population of threatened communities, each counted by how fully its threatening incident's personnel demand is met (assigned capacity / demand, capped at 1; a community under several threats uses its least-met one), over the total weighted threatened population. Weight = population x (1 + vulnerability).
- Raw value
- 35,652.7 weighted residents protected
- Normalized
- 0.5811 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.40
- Contribution
- 0.40 x 0.5811 = 0.2324
- Sampleton: 12,400 x (1 + 0.35) = 16,740 weighted; Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 41 / demand 16, capped at 1 = 1; protected 16,740
- Mockridge: 3,100 x (1 + 0.6) = 4,960 weighted; Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 41 / demand 16, capped at 1 = 1; protected 4,960
- Modelburg: 18,900 x (1 + 0.45) = 27,405 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 0.3519; protected 9,642.5
- Demoville: 2,200 x (1 + 0.75) = 3,850 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 0.3519; protected 1,354.6
- Synthwood: 5,600 x (1 + 0.5) = 8,400 weighted; Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = 0.3519; protected 2,955.6
- Protected 35,652.7 / 61,355 weighted residents
Community equity (worst-served)0.0704 of 0.20 (▲ 0.0704 ahead)
How well the worst-served threatened community is doing: the minimum over threatened communities of how fully each one's threatening incident's personnel demand is met (assigned capacity / demand, capped at 1; a community under several threats uses its least-met one). Same per-community credit as protection, but a minimum instead of a weighted average, so one community left short holds the score down however well the others do.
- Raw value
- 0.352 worst-served community's met ratio
- Normalized
- 0.3519 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.20
- Contribution
- 0.20 x 0.3519 = 0.0704
- Sampleton: Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 41 / demand 16, capped at 1 = credit 1
- Mockridge: Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California capacity 41 / demand 16, capped at 1 = credit 1
- Modelburg: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 0.3519 (worst-served)
- Demoville: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 0.3519 (worst-served)
- Synthwood: Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California capacity 19 / demand 54, capped at 1 = credit 0.3519 (worst-served)
- Worst-served: Modelburg, Demoville, Synthwood at credit 0.3519 (minimum over 5 threatened communities)
Response time0.1319 of 0.15 (▲ 0.0278 ahead)
Mean modeled minutes for assigned teams to reach their incident: mobilization + haversine distance / effective speed. 30 min or less scores 1, 120 min or more scores 0, linear between.
- Raw value
- 40.9 minutes (mean)
- Normalized
- 0.8793 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.15
- Contribution
- 0.15 x 0.8793 = 0.1319
- Engine Strike Team 1 (engine) to Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California: 15 min + 7.2 km / 50 km/h = 23.6 min
- Engine Strike Team 2 (engine) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 15 min + 17.2 km / 50 km/h = 35.7 min
- Hand Crew 7 (hand-crew) to Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California: 20 min + 10 km / 40 km/h = 35 min
- Dozer Group 2 (dozer) to Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: 45 min + 17 km / 25 km/h = 85.8 min
- Helicopter 41 (helicopter) to Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California: 20 min + 12.8 km / 180 km/h = 24.3 min
- Mean 40.9 min over 5 team(s); (120 - mean) / (120 - 30), clamped to 0..1
Unmet demand0.1250 of 0.25 (▽ 0.0679 behind)
Modeled personnel demand per threatening incident (ceil(threatened population / 1000 x severity rate)) minus assigned capacity, floored at 0, summed. Normalized as 1 - unmet / total demand, so 1 means no unmet demand.
- Raw value
- 35 personnel unmet
- Normalized
- 0.5000 (0 to 1, higher is better)
- Weight
- 0.25
- Contribution
- 0.25 x 0.5000 = 0.1250
- Wildfire NORTE, Orange, California: demand ceil(15,500 / 1000 x 1 (low)) = 16; assigned 41; unmet 0
- Wildfire HENDERSON, San Diego, California: demand ceil(26,700 / 1000 x 2 (high)) = 54; assigned 19; unmet 35
- Unmet 35 of 70 personnel; 1 - 35 / 70
Factor comparison table
SyntheticSame data as the contribution bars. Delta is B minus A; a positive delta favors B. Contribution = weight x normalized.
| Factor | Weight | A rawSynthetic | A normalizedSynthetic | A contributionSynthetic | B rawSynthetic | B normalizedSynthetic | B contributionSynthetic | Delta (B minus A)Synthetic | Favors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modeled residential protection | 0.40 | 39,655 weighted residents protected | 0.6463 | 0.2585 | 35,652.7 weighted residents protected | 0.5811 | 0.2324 | -0.0261 | Favors A |
| Community equity (worst-served) | 0.20 | 0 worst-served community's met ratio | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.352 worst-served community's met ratio | 0.3519 | 0.0704 | +0.0704 | Favors B |
| Response time | 0.15 | 57.6 minutes (mean) | 0.6937 | 0.1041 | 40.9 minutes (mean) | 0.8793 | 0.1319 | +0.0278 | Favors B |
| Unmet demand | 0.25 | 16 personnel unmet | 0.7714 | 0.1929 | 35 personnel unmet | 0.5000 | 0.1250 | -0.0679 | Favors A |
| Total | 1.00 | 0.5555 | 0.5597 | +0.0042 | Favors B |
Next step: decide
Comparing never changes team assignments.
Approving a plan is a separate, deliberate step: it needs a named approver and a written rationale, and it writes an audit record. Each column has a link that carries its allocation to the Decisions page for review; a modified column travels as a draft and is saved only if it is approved there.